Column
Het is vijfeneenhalf jaar na het Brexit-referendum, bijna twee jaar nadat het Verenigd Koninkrijk de Europese Unie daadwerkelijk verliet en ruim een jaar sinds de nieuwe handelsrelatie tussen beide een feit is. Als we de balans opmaken, blijkt het beloofde Brexit-dividend weinig waard.
Special
The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.
Column
De Britten moeten snel een besluit nemen over een verlenging van de transitieperiode. Maar hoe logisch, rationeel en verstandig zo’n verlenging op dit moment ook is, we kunnen niet aannemen dat premier Johnson dit zonder slag of stoot zal doen.
Special
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Special
Brexit has finally become a done deal, but the next phase of the negotiations is much broader in scope. The little time available limits the potential of any EU-UK agreement. Indeed, Brexit has been gradually defined in much harder ways.
Column
Of de Big Ben nou geluid wordt of niet, het is 100 procent zeker dat Brexit over een kleine twee weken een feit is. Op 31 januari om 23:00 uur lokale tijd zal het Verenigd Koninkrijk definitief uit de Europese Unie vertrokken zijn. Er is geen ruimte meer voor heroverwegingen, en er komt voorlopig ook eventjes geen herkansing.
Special
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Economic Report
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
Column
Deze week staat weer volledig in het teken van Brexit. Het Verenigd Koninkrijk en de EU intensiveren de gesprekken in aanloop naar de Europese Raad op 17 en 18 oktober. Komt er een akkoord, of gaan we toch weer verlengen?
Special
Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.
Special
At first glance, the economy of the United Kingdom hasn’t suffered much from Brexit. However, appearances are deceiving and the steady growth of the past two years masks underlying Brexit damage.
Economic Quarterly Report
De markten zijn lang gepamperd door de ECB, maar moeten weer op eigen benen leren staan. Zowel de korte als de lange rentes zullen echter aan de lage kant blijven. Het oplopende renteverschil met de VS zorgt voor toenemende druk op de eurodollar.
Economic Report
The EU and the UK reached an agreement over a transition period on March 19, 2018. That is good for business continuity but does not affect our Brexit outcome base case. Hence, we maintain our view that the economy will slow down in 2018.
Economic Report
Theresa May wanted to exploit her enormous lead in the polls to strengthen her Brexit mandate, but this gamble has now backfired. The Conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons, an arrangement with DUP is now a plausible scenario.
Special
At the moment PM May called for snap elections, the Tories’ had a large lead in the polls. However, the gap with Labour has narrowed over the last few weeks. If the Tories lose their majority, this could have implications for the Brexit outcome.