RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Economic Update

Russia: Economic slowdown continues

Russia’s economic activity has continued to slow in 13Q3 and we expect growth in 2013 as a whole to be around 1.5%. The economic slowdown is starting to adversely impact public finances. The central bank has left rates on hold for now, despite falling inflation.

Economic Update

Brazil: Economy contracts in third quarter 2013

The third quarter was disappointing for Brazil, as GDP contracted for the first time since 2009 on a quarterly basis. Growth in the coming quarters is likely to be somewhat stronger, but leading indicators suggest that momentum remains rather weak.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeelden eurozone (Dutch)

De groeicijfers van het tweede kwartaal van 2013 laten een gemengd beeld zien. Zo presteerde de Duitse economie goed, maar bleven Spanje en Italië in recessie. Onze Conjunctuurbeelden in één overzicht.

Economic Update

Brazil: Growth accelerates, but new slowdown likely

Brazil’s economy grew surprisingly fast in 13Q2. In particular, the strong investment growth realised is highly welcome. However, we expect growth to slow down in the second part of 2013.

Economic Update

India: Battered but not beaten

Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

If being disappointed is worse than being angry, the World is in a terrible place. However, one can read two things into disappointment either: the performance is really bad, or the expectations were too high.