Economic Report
The Tequila crisis in 1994
In this report we will focus on the crisis of 1994 in Mexico, where a strong devaluation of the peso led to both a currency and banking crisis, while a sovereign crisis was just prevented.
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Economic Report
The Mexican 1982 debt crisis
In August 1982, Mexico was the first of many Latin American countries to default on its sovereign debt. This report covers the main characteristics of the Mexican debt crisis as well as its main causes and triggers.
Country Report
Country Report Oman
Small-scale social unrest remains present in Oman and the increase in current government spending is a concern. Succession risks remain, as long as Sultan Said al Said fails to appoint a successor.
Country Report
Country Report Curacao
Curacao is currently facing difficult times, both politically and economically. While economic growth was again disappointing in 2012, Curacao’s political year was characterized with four different prime-ministers and the killing of a politician.
Economic Update
Conjunctuurbeelden eurozone (Dutch)
De groeicijfers van het tweede kwartaal van 2013 laten een gemengd beeld zien. Zo presteerde de Duitse economie goed, maar bleven Spanje en Italië in recessie. Onze Conjunctuurbeelden in één overzicht.
Economic Report
The Russian Crisis 1998
Russia’s fixed exchange rate regime together with its fragile fiscal position appeared to be unsustainable in the course of 1998. By then an outbreak of a severe banking, currency and sovereign debt crisis could not be prevented.
Economic Update
Italy: The road to Rome is still very long
The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.
Economic Update
Brazil: Growth accelerates, but new slowdown likely
Brazil’s economy grew surprisingly fast in 13Q2. In particular, the strong investment growth realised is highly welcome. However, we expect growth to slow down in the second part of 2013.
Economic Update
India: Battered but not beaten
Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.
Economic Update
Economic Update Russia
Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.
Economic Update
France: A jobless recovery
A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.
Economic Update
Spain: Adios recesión?
A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.
Economic Update
Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact
US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.
Economic Update
Belgium: Recovery on its way, but patience is warranted
In 13Q2, the Belgian economy climbed out of recession. The recovery is expected to continue at a gradual pace on the back of stronger external demand. It will probably take a while until the labour market starts to recover.
Economic Update
Germany: Still going strong
Second quarter economic growth in Germany was broad-based. Given the current readings of both the producer and consumer confidence, the economy is expected to continue growing in the coming quarters.
