RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Economic visibility must improve quickly

Policy uncertainty remains high and this will have negative repercussions for growth. Thus far, financial markets have remained optimistic, but policymakers should not expect this to continue for far longer if policy visibility does not improve.

Economic Comment

How are exposures to periphery evolving?

Domestic residents of the euro periphery countries have increased their exposure to their respective governments as foreigners headed for the exit. This is an unwelcome development since it further reinforces the link between sovereigns and banks.

Economic Comment

German deliberations on the ESM

On July 10, the German Constitutional Court holds the first hearing regarding appeals against the ESM, the fiscal compact and an amendment to Article 136 TFEU, which legally anchors a stability mechanism in the Treaty.

Economic Comment

United Kingdom: Opening the monetary spigots

The UK monetary authorities have come up with new credit easing and quantitative easing measures to jump-start the ailing economy. We continue to remain unconvinced that these measures will materially alter the economic outlook.

Economic Comment

Irish economy still struggling to recover

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Economic Comment

The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1

The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Comment

Is the global economy stabilising?

The December manufacturing PMIs have surprised on the upside. We should take comfort that the deterioration in PMIs is nowhere close to what we witnessed at the height of the crisis in 2008-09.