RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Report

The US recession of 2020 - The horror version

We expect US GDP to fall by 6% in 2020. After a sharp supply-induced contraction in March we expect the economy to rebound after the lockdown is over. However, the damage done to demand is likely to remain a drag on the economy for years.

Economic Report

Recession United States on the radar

Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

Special Dutch version

Trumpgate

Progress on President Trump’s legislative agenda has been slow and an increasing amount of time and energy in the White House and on Capitol Hill is spent on ‘Trumpgate’. We consider three different political routes that could be taken in the US.

Special Dutch version

Trump’s impact on the economy

As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.