Economic Report
On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.
Economic Report
If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.
Special
Democrats and Republicans have finally passed a bill on a new Covid-19 relief package which was signed into law by President Trump on Sunday. The size of the fiscal package is estimated at almost $900 billion, although about half of that is money recycled from the CARES Act.
Economic Report
The US election results are coming in slowly and are likely to be contested. This will reduce the legitimacy of the president that will be sworn in in January and further fuel the social unrest.
Special
Under a Biden presidency cooperation between the EU and US on a broad range of topics would improve and the risk of new tariff hikes fall. Yet, certain tensions would remain difficult to overcome and a significant fall in trade barriers unlikely.
Special
While both Trump and Biden want to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment, their approaches are radically different. In this report, we try to assess the impact of their policy plans on a range of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, real income, public debt and trade.
Special
While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.
Economic Report
The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.
Special
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
Special
The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President.
Special
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Special
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Video
We discuss the US productivity slowdown and policy options to reverse that trend.
Economic Report
After being suspended for about a year, the debt limit returned on March 2. However, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures that could delay a federal government default to September or October.
Economic Report
President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.
