RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

United States: Biden's challenges

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.

Economic Report

United States: Election meltdown

The US election results are coming in slowly and are likely to be contested. This will reduce the legitimacy of the president that will be sworn in in January and further fuel the social unrest.

Column

Het Trumpisme blijft, ook als Trump verliest (Dutch)

Economen denken vaak dat Trump in 2016 de verkiezingen won vanwege economische ongelijkheid, het verlies van banen in de industrie en stagnerende inkomens. Maar dat is niet zo: identiteit speelde een veel grotere rol. En dat gaat niet zomaar weg als Trump verliest.

Special

US elections: Economy or identity?

While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.

Special

US: Turbulence ahead

A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest, rising tensions with China and insufficient fiscal stimulus provide a toxic cocktail that are likely to pose a threat to the recovery and cause considerable market turbulence in Q4.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Economic Report

The US recession of 2020 - The horror version

We expect US GDP to fall by 6% in 2020. After a sharp supply-induced contraction in March we expect the economy to rebound after the lockdown is over. However, the damage done to demand is likely to remain a drag on the economy for years.

Economic Report

US helicopter money

The US federal government is considering sending ‘helicopter money’ to Americans as an attractive alternative to outright monetary financing. This can be effective in slowing down a sharp decline in consumer spending, although it will probably not be enough to bring the economy back on an upward growth path.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Economic Comment

Trump: graven de Democraten een kuil voor zichzelf? (Dutch)

Zolang voldoende Republikeinen in de Senaat achter Trump blijven staan, wordt hij niet uit zijn ambt gezet. De start van het impeachment-onderzoek door de Democraten in het Huis van Afgevaardigden kan echter wel een averechts effect hebben op de kans voor de Democraten om de presidentsverkiezingen te winnen.