Special
While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.
Economic Report
The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.
Economic Report
We expect US GDP to fall by 6% in 2020. After a sharp supply-induced contraction in March we expect the economy to rebound after the lockdown is over. However, the damage done to demand is likely to remain a drag on the economy for years.
Special
The slowdown of US productivity growth can be turned around if policymakers would launch an alternative policy agenda, focusing on stimulating investment in science, innovation and education.
Economic Report
Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.
Special
The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.
Economic Comment
The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.
Special Dutch version
Progress on President Trump’s legislative agenda has been slow and an increasing amount of time and energy in the White House and on Capitol Hill is spent on ‘Trumpgate’. We consider three different political routes that could be taken in the US.
Special
While executive orders allow the President to act unilaterally, the US political system has several checks and balances in place that give the Congress and the courts the power to derail or overturn his decisions. Trade conflicts are the main downside risk of Trump’s executive orders.
Special Dutch version
As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.
Economic Quarterly Report
Ondanks de tegenvallende economische groei blijft de Amerikaanse banenmotor draaien. De uitkomst van de verkiezingen in november kan leiden tot een koerswijziging van het overheidsbeleid in de komende jaren.
Economic Quarterly Report
De economische groei in de Verenigde Staten is in het eerste kwartaal verder vertraagd. Onder meer door de presidentsverkiezingen van november zijn de vooruitzichten voor dit jaar onzeker.
Economic Quarterly Report
De zwakke wereldeconomie, de dure dollar en de lage olieprijs raken de Amerikaanse industrie en mijnbouw. De dienstensector heeft echter minder last van de tegenwind van overzee en schept voldoende banen om de werkloosheid te verlagen en de koopkracht van huishoudens te ondersteunen.
