RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Bangladesh

The political environment in Bangladesh has calmed in recent months and the AL government is likely to sit out its term in office. Growth is strengthening, albeit only very slightly, and the current account surplus will narrow further.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Economic growth in Taiwan is recovering somewhat this year thanks to rising exports and investment. Protests could slow the pace of further Cross-Strait cooperation, but policies towards mainland China are likely to remain pragmatic.

Country Report

Country Report Maldives

On the back of a recovery of the tourism sector, GDP growth is picking up. Political stability has returned in the short-term following the victory of President Yameen and his PPM party in the 2013 presidential and March 2014 parliamentary elections.

Country Report

Country Report Sri Lanka

On the economic front, Sri Lanka is performing relatively well. Growth is holding up strongly and the balance of payments is improving. The increasingly authoritarian style of the Rajapaksa government is, however, less positive news.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

The South Korean government is trying to raise growth both in the short- and long-term. Meanwhile, the external vulnerability of the country and of its banking sector in particular, has decreased. Relations with North Korea remain uncertain and difficult.

Country Report

Country Report India

The recent massive election win of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and expectations of business friendly reforms are boosting sentiment and growth. However, India will not change overnight.

Country Report

Country Report Uzbekistan

Real GDP growth in Uzbekistan is likely to weaken somewhat in the coming years, but remain sound on the back of high (public) investment growth. Would president Karimov decide to run for another term, political uncertainty will be eased, but only temporarily.

Country Report

Country Report Mongolia

Mongolia’s foreign exchanges reserves have decreased rapidly, as FDI in the mining sector has plunged, while import demand has remained high on the back of loose macroeconomic policies.

Country Report

Country Report China

China’s housing market has been weakening recently, but exports seem to do rather well. The latest PMIs suggest the country should be able to avoid a hard landing.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The policy focus in Indonesia is on macroeconomic stabilisation, while protectionist policies have been implemented in the past months. Growth is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2014. No major new structural reforms are expected from the next government.

Country Report

Country Report Philippines

The institutional quality of the Philippines has improved in recent years, while growth has been relatively high. On the political front, the peace agreement with the MILF bodes well for stability, but relations with China remain poor.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

After the May 22 coup, Thailand is under military control. The risk of large and violent protests remains present. The democracy is unlikely to be restored in the short-term. Whilst in control, the military aims to restore economic growth.

Country Report

Country Report Brunei

Brunei’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 2013, but growth will be positive, though muted this year. The government has started to gradually introduce a sharia penal code.

Country Report

Country Report India

India’s parliamentary elections in April-May are the focal point of the news at the moment. Even though these elections will likely put the opposition in power, significant policy changes are not expected.

Country Report

Country Report Bangladesh

The January 2014 elections have left Bangladesh with a government whose legitimacy is questioned. With the opposition expected to continue protests and strikes, the risk of more political instability is high.