RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Zambia: headwinds due to low copper prices

Low copper prices and lower copper production have pulled the trade balance in negative territory and increased the budget deficit. This combined with a sharp depreciation of the kwacha has increased public debt.

Country Report

Country Report India

Economic growth has been strong recently and is expected to strengthen somewhat in the near future. Although economic policy in India is moving into the right direction, the pace is slow, which eventually might hurt economic growth.

Country Report

Country Report Belgium

The new centre-right government plans to target the budget deficit and Belgian firms’ competitiveness. Thanks to various measures implemented by the former and current government, the increase in unit labour costs came to halt in 2014.

Country Report

Country Report France

In the short-term, low oil prices and the weak euro will support economic growth. But the French economy also faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitiveness position, high unemployment and weak public finances.

Economic Update

Belgium: slow economic growth continues

We expect the Belgian economy to grow by around 1¼% in 2015, supported by household consumption and exports. There will be further economic growth (1½%) in 2016, driven by the global economy and investment, but consumption growth will then slow down.

Economic Update

Belgium: softening domestic demand in 2015

Economic growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 0.3% q-o-q and was mainly supported by private investments and private consumption. Looking forward, domestic demand growth is likely to soften.

Economic Update

France: at last, economic growth

Real GDP growth in France increased by 0.3% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2014. We expect private consumption to keep growing and act as the main driver of growth in 2015.

Economic Update

Belgium: recovery slows in second quarter of 2014

Recent data shows that the Belgian economic recovery remained in place, but weakened in the second quarter of 2014. Going forward, we expect the recovery of the Belgian economy to continue in the second half of 2014, but the pace is likely to be sluggish.

Economic Update

France: recovery remains weak

Recent data show that the French economy did not grow in the first half of 2014 and the outlook for the second half is muted. Furthermore, the labour market remains weak and we expect unemployment to decrease at the end of 2015.

Economic Update

France: recovery stuck in the starting blocks

The French economy registered growth of 0.0% in 2014Q1 q-o-q, caused by weak consumer spending, poor business investment and declining net exports. We expect these trends to continue and expect therefore a very modest recovery going forward.