Country Report
Brazil: rays of light at the end of the tunnel
Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.
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Country Report
Argentina: normalizing the economy, a tough balancing act
The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.
Country Report
Colombia: low commodity prices weigh on economic growth and public finances
Low commodity prices have been weighing on economic growth and the public finances, but the external position is expected to remain relatively strong. The latter is due to a flexible exchange rate regime and adequate monetary policy.
Country Report
Peru: positive economic outlook
Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.
Country Report
Argentina: economic transition full speed ahead
Following opposition victory in the November 2015 Argentinian elections, Argentina changes course on economic policy. The shift is good for the business environment, but not without implementation risks.
Country Report
Mexico: growth holds up well despite austerity
Growth is holding up well despite the fallout from low oil prices and the resulting fiscal austerity, which strongly and negatively affects public investment but at the same time supports the credibility of the government’s economic policies.
Country Report
Brazil: caught up in a political storm
Brazil is struggling with policy paralysis and a deep recession as a colossal corruption case has brought politics to a gridlock. Little improvement is expected in 2016.
Country Report
Argentina: winds of change
Argentina is heading for change as the October 2015 elections are approaching. However, the economic tide will take longer to change as macroeconomic imbalances are large and increasing.
Country Report
Peru: losing steam
Falling commodity prices take their toll on the Peruvian economy and currency. Political vacuum leaves room for more radical outsiders in the 2016 elections.
Country Report
Chile: economic reality holds back reforms
Despite low copper prices, growth picks up modestly on the back of government stimulus and external rebalancing, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Economic reality and Bachelet’s low popular approval rates hold back reform ambitions.
Country Report
Brazil: headwinds intensify
Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.
Country Report
Country report Mexico
Economic growth has slowed as a result of low oil prices and tax hikes, but going forward external demand and investment will support growth. Oil reform will further induce FDI but the security situation in some region remains challenging.
Country Report
Country Report Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s government is on the very verge of a default. Structural problems, economic shocks and weak public finances have yielded a decade of economic stagnation, outmigration, fiscal deficits and an unsustainable public debt.
Country Report
Country Report Uruguay
After years of very high growth, Uruguay’s economy is “cooling off” as exports and domestic de-mand growth rates are both slowing. Uruguay remains susceptible to weak economic conditions in the near region, in particular in Argentina and Brazil.
Country Report
Country Report Brazil
Brazil’s economy is in the doldrums and the recent return to sounder macroeconomic policies, though positive in the long term, will weigh heavily on economic activity in 2015.