Economic Report
To preserve healthy economic growth rates in the medium term, the Spanish government should speed up the labour market recovery and deal with remaining challenges. Elections in 2019 could break the reform deadlock, but not necessarily in a positive way.
Economic Comment
We have a deal, but are also closer than ever to a ‘hard Brexit’. The EU and the UK reached an agreement on the divorce conditions on 14 November. Now both the EU and the UK have to ratify the deal before 29 March 2019 to realise an orderly Brexit and start the transition period.
Economic Comment
The German economy is gradually losing momentum. Car sales are recovering, but damage of the third quarter of 2018 has not been repaired yet. Declining IFO indices also point at lower growth, but not a recession.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global growth will decline moderately in the coming years, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Persistent risks such as escalation of the trade war or a disorderly Brexit are a permanent concern in this slowdown.
Economic Report
There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.
Special Dutch version
The European elections will be a key political event for Europe in 2019. They will be held in May, to elect the new members of the European Parliament (EP).
Economic Comment
Prime Minister May decided to cancel the ‘meaningful vote’ of the British Parliament on the deal with the EU scheduled for 11 December. Instead she will attempt to get more concessions from the EU during the summit on 13-14 December. Getting the deal through the British Parliament remains a challenge.
Economic Comment
The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.
Economic Comment
At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
