RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

The Russian economy has fallen into a recession this year. A fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth was announced in May, but we do not expect any short-term results. To gain more influence in the CIS region, Russia has resorted to strong-arm tactics.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Following successful internal devaluation and economic rebalancing, Lithuania currently ranks among the EU’s fastest-growing members. Its new government remains committed to fiscal consolidation in order to qualify for euro accession by 2015.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Benefitting from firming external demand, Poland’s economy gradually turns the corner and its external position improves. Yet, weaker growth left its mark on public finances, forcing the government to take steps to avoid mandatory spending cuts.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Turkey’s large current account deficit and its small stock of foreign reserves make it vulnerable to the effects of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, there have also been several important political developments.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia’s economy is recovering slightly with the help of IMF support and real GDP growth is expected to be positive again in 2013. However, Croatia’s EU accession and the lack of structural reforms negatively affect Bosnia’s economic outlook.

Country Report

Country Report Uzbekistan

Economic growth in Uzbekistan is expected to remain strong in coming years. Political tensions have increased over the lingering uncertainty concerning the succession of President Karimov.

Country Report

Country Report Macedonia

Macedonia’s economic and political situation looks challenging, as the country’s economy contracted last year and the passage of this year’s budget resulted in a major political crisis. Meanwhile, EU membership remains a distant prospect.

Country Report

Country Report Estonia

Estonia’s economic growth will moderate this year. As a result, inflationary pressures will remain subdued. Estonia’s contribution to the ESM implies a significant liability. Furthermore, the country’s external position is fragile.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Economic growth in Russia is falling to a lower longer-term trend growth of 3-4%. While domestic political stability has been restored, underlying tensions remain. Tensions with the EU have recently risen but are unlikely to escalate.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

Reflecting close business cycle synchronicity with the euro area and fiscal consolidation at home, the Czech economy contracted by 1.2% last year. Yet, thanks to ongoing fiscal prudence, the deterioration of public finances could be contained.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has been singled out as a potential candidate for an EU/IMF bailout. Recent bond emissions should cover this year’s financing needs, but larger-than-expected bank recapitalization costs could still make external assistance necessary.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s economic and fiscal situation remains worrisome, as the country’s economy fell back into recession last year and a pre-election spending binge led to a marked deterioration of its public finances.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia will join the European Union on July 1st, 2013, but its accession is unlikely to bring about short-term relief from its economic problems. Its economy is expected to remain in recession this year, as domestic and external demand stay weak.

Country Report

Country Report Slovakia

Economic growth in Slovakia decelerated from 3.2% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2012. Strong foreign demand for Slovak cars and foreign direct investment, the latter primarily by foreign car producers, were the main drivers of growth.