Economic Update
A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.
Economic Comment Dutch version
Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.
Economic Update
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect the global economy to contract by 3.8% in 2020 and a recovery in 2021 of 4.5%. COVID vaccines will enable the economic recovery, although availability and distribution will vary globally. Economic challenges remain in form of divergent growth between sectors, Brexit, a growing share of ‘zombie firms’ and US-China trade tensions.
Economic Comment
The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.
Economic Update
Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.
Special
China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.
Economic Comment
Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.
Economic Comment
Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.
Economic Report
Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The global economy has bottomed out and started its recovery. However, the recovery is marred by uncertainties such as more waves of coronavirus infections, lurking negative effects on the labor market and productivity and rising geopolitical tensions.
Economic Comment
Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.