RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Peru: positive economic outlook

Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.

Country Report

Philippines: strong economic growth amidst upcoming elections

The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.

Country Report

China: turbulence on financial markets accompanied by fall of FX reserves

Turbulence on financial markets has been accompanied by a strong fall of China’s still sizable stock of FX reserves. Growth in industry and construction took a hit in 2015, but service sector growth appears to have remained stable. China’s economic challenges are big.

Country Report

Thailand: heading for extended military rule

Thailand is heading for extended military rule, as the National Assembly rejected the proposal for a new constitution paving the way to early elections. Economic growth remains relatively weak, forcing the government to revert to populist economic policies.

Country Report

Russia: bottoming out?

Russia’s economy might be finally bottoming out after recording a 5% yoy contraction in 2Q15, the sharpest in six years. However the growth outlook remains bleak due to structurally lower oil prices, existing sanctions and lack of structural reforms.

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.

Country Report

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Country Report

Chile: economic reality holds back reforms

Despite low copper prices, growth picks up modestly on the back of government stimulus and external rebalancing, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Economic reality and Bachelet’s low popular approval rates hold back reform ambitions.