RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Special

US elections: Economy or identity?

While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.

Special

Brexit: Keep Talking

The mandates of Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost don’t ‘click’, no matter how long they keep talking. As the talks go down the wire, political intervention remains necessary to break the deadlock.

Special

COVID-19 policy response: Spend or lend?

The unequal balance between developed and emerging economies becomes painfully clear in the different government response packages to COVID-19. Emerging markets are constrained in their ability to finance appropriate fiscal packages.

Economic Comment

Japan: The reign of Suga

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economic Report

Going down: Revising our economic forecasts for India

We have revised our economic forecasts for the Indian economy downward to -10.6% for fiscal 2020/21 and expect the economy to grow by 8.9% in fiscal 2021/22. The main reason for the revision is that monthly economic data show that the pace of recovery is much slower than anticipated.

Economic Report

India’s worrying inflation dynamics

Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.

Special

US: Turbulence ahead

A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest, rising tensions with China and insufficient fiscal stimulus provide a toxic cocktail that are likely to pose a threat to the recovery and cause considerable market turbulence in Q4.