RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

IN2030: Four future scenarios for businesses

Nobody knows the future. Yet to gain some understanding of the future, we have developed four possible scenarios of how the would could look in twenty years. Our projections revolve around two variables: conflict versus harmony and evolution versus revolution. The interaction of these two variables has resulted in four scenarios, each of which sketches a possible state of the world in 2030.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s oil and gas dependent economy has started to recover slowly from the sharp downturn in 2009, with real GDP growth estimated at 4.2% and 4% in the next two years.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country report)

The island of Taiwan has a dynamic, capitalist economy which has sharply rebounded from the effects of the global financial crisis. Economic activity will expand by over 9% yoy in 2010, a large improvement from the 1.9% contraction in 2009.

Country Report

Maldives (Country report)

A structural country risk the Maldives are facing is climate change. If the sea level rises only by a couple of meters, the majority of the Maldives will be submerged. The political situation is very unstable, as the opposition and the ruling party are frequently at loggerheads hindering any progress on reforms.

Country Report

Angola (Country report)

Angola’s economic performance is almost completely determined by the global demand for oil. In fact, oil related taxes amount to 90% of total taxes. It is therefore not surprising that Angola’s economy took a hit when oil prices dropped dramatically as a result of the global recession

Special

Breaking up the eurozone

This paper deals with the question whether or not it is a good idea to break up the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone).

Country Report

Cyprus (Country report)

Cyprus has performed relatively well in the face of the global recession. Although it especially suffered from reduced foreign demand, growth is expected to pick up, albeit slowly.

Country Report

Ghana (Country update)

The large macroeconomic imbalances with which Ghana entered the global financial crisis have narrowed recently. However, there are still sizeable vulnerabilities.

Special

The Return of Sovereign Risk in the Industrialised World

The severe deterioration of asset quality in late 2007 marked the opening act of the financial crisis. A drop in global economic activity during 2008 and early 2009 was next. A wave of sovereign defaults in the industrialised world is step three.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

Morocco’s stable growth and banking sector, despite the global crisis, mark the county’s present relatively sound economic state.

Country Report

Morocco (Country report)

Morocco’s stable growth and banking sector, despite the global crisis, mark the county’s present relatively sound economic state.

Special

Demystifying the paths towards debt sustainability

In this study the policy options: defaulting on debt obligations, withdrawing support measure for the banking sector, increasing inflation, boosting GDP growth and introducing austerity measures that governments have at their disposal are discussed.

Country Report

Cameroon (Country report)

In the past, Cameroon benefited from being a small oil-exporting economy (10% of GDP, but 40% of exports and fiscal revenues in 2008). Oil exploitation created fluctuating trade and budget surpluses and attracted inward foreign investments.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary struggled through the financial and economic crisis in 2009. The economy shrunk by 7% and there was little room for fiscal stimulus as Hungary had to adhere to the conditions of the IMF attached to the aid package.