RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania’s recovery from the crisis in 2009-2010, when GDP fell by 6.5%, has yet to gain pace. We expect the economy to have grown by a meager 0.2% in 2012. The slow growth is largely caused by the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slow demand.

Country Report

Country Report Rwanda

Rwanda’s is in trouble. Due to the UN’s claims of involvement in the violence in DR Congo, several donors withdrew their support. This hits Rwanda hard, as donor income accounts for a large part of foreign exchange and fiscal income.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

Economic growth in Uruguay eased somewhat in 2012, but nevertheless remained decent. The government has tried to fight high inflation through a price freeze, while the overall policy framework remained friendly.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as conflicts between the government and opposition are fierce. The economic outlook is bleak as the regional unrest, particularly in Syria, will weigh on economic activity.

Country Report

Country Report Dominican Republic

Economic growth cooled markedly in the Dominican Republic, while strong pre-election spending led to a deterioration of public finances. The balance-of-payments position remains weak and could deteriorate further if PetroCaribe support were to end.

Economic Comment

Thou shalt not beggar-thy-neighbour

The G7 statement released today was aimed at addressing concerns over a fresh round of global currency wars. It is vital that the world leaders denounce beggar-thy-neighbour policies at the upcoming G20 meeting in Moscow as well.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Driven by strong domestic demand, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 5.2% in 2012, but weak external demand may lead to a growth slowdown this year. In mid-2013, general elections will be held that will likely be won by the current government.

Column

Vervelen (Dutch)

De arbeid bevrijdt ons van drie grote rampen: de verveling, de ondeugd en de armoede.”. Beleidsmakers over de hele wereld hebben deze woorden van Voltaire goed in de oren geknoopt en brood en spelen vervangen door werk.

Economic Report

Turkey: ready to compete?

The competitiveness of the Turkish economy is obstructed by a high minimum wage, stringent labor laws and a flawed education system. Improvements are needed to allow Turkey to compete abroad and fully benefit from a young and growing labour market.

Economic Report

Turkey: coping with external imbalance

Despite Turkey's economic success over the past decade, its large external imbalance remains a cause for concern. This report considers the risks, as well as the reforms needed to reduce this imbalance and move to a more sustainable growth path.

Column

Het dilemma van de toeschouwer (Dutch)

Als mensen gaan staan om een voetbalwedstrijd beter te zien, dwingen zij de rest om ook te gaan staan. Maar als iedereen staat, ziet niemand het beter, terwijl iedereen minder comfortabel is. Dit is de essentie van de valutaoorlog.

Country Report

Country Report Bermuda

Following its fourth year in recession, Bermuda’s economy is expected to stagnate this year. The local government has to embark on fiscal consolidation soon, but these efforts should not affect the island’s important (re)insurance sector.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk (Dutch)

De Franse economie kende een zwak 12K4. Wij verwachten een milde BBP-krimp. Daarnaast valt op dat de stemmingsindicatoren van januari een verslechtering laten zien, dit in tegenstelling tot de lichte verbetering in andere eurozone landen.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk (Dutch)

Het BBP van de VK kromp in 12K4. Met een daling van de werkloosheid naar 7,7% blijft de arbeidsmarkt positief verrassen. Naar verwachting zal de inflatie verder stijgen. Er zijn signalen dat het 'Funding for Lending' schema verder op stoom komt.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

GDP contracted slightly in 12Q4. Growth is expected to have been week across the board and is not likely to rebound strongly in 2013. On the upside, inflation is on a downward trend and agreements are reached to keep labour costs in check.