RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.

Special Dutch version

Why the eurozone needs stronger institutions

The institutional design of the eurozone has undergone a rapid change since the emergence of the European debt crisis. This study details the institutional measures implemented in terms of fiscal, financial and economic integration.

Special

Conditional Euro T-Bills as a transitional regime

Since early 2010, tensions within the Eurozone have risen sharply. What started with a Greek confession that both projections for and past realizations of government debt and deficit statistics were blatantly off the mark, developed into a Euro crisis of systemic proportions.

Economic Comment

The Cyprus bailout program

The Cyprus bailout program presented on Monday 25 March is much better than the proposal presented a week before. A Cypriot euro exit has been averted, but the country will face a difficult and uncertain economic future. 

Economic Report

The eurozone needs an economic fire department

The actions we see when a fire erupts in a building are not unlike those observed during the eurozone crisis. The lesson here is that the eurozone must always have an economic fire department in combination with stronger institutions.

Economic Report Dutch version

Italian elections: A lost year?

Given the Italian election outcome, resurgence of political and financial market unrest seems likely. No party has obtained a workable majority and a coalition seems extremely difficult to be formed. In any case, the appetite for further fiscal austerity and reforms will be lower than desired.

Economic Comment

UK: Osborne loses his cherished AAA

Moody’s decision to downgrade the UK’s government bond rating should not come as a surprise to investors. That said, the lower rating is a huge blow for Mr. Osborne since his austerity plan was partly based on maintaining the AAA-rating of the UK.

Economic Comment

Eurozone’s growth disappoints in 12Q4

The eurozone GDP contracted by 0.6% q-o-q in the final quarter of 2012. Sentiment indicators suggest the economy will fare better in 13Q1, but we do not expect growth to pick up strongly in 2013 amid severe economic headwinds.

Economic Report Dutch version

Spanish labour market: no recovery in sight

Faced with sky-high unemployment, Spanish policymakers have initiated radical labour market reforms. While this will hopefully lead to a turnaround in the Spanish labour market in the long run, the outlook for the next several years remains bleak.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Dutch economy back in recession

The Dutch economy entered its third recession in four years in the second half of 2012. Recent sentiment indicators point to some stabilization at the start of the year, but the economic outlook remains weak and uncertain.