RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

UK: Expansionary fiscal austerity is a myth

The recent GDP release suggests that the UK has also joined the recessionary club. However, reliable leading indicators point to a high chance of output being eventually revised upwards.

Country Report

Estonia (Country report)

Estonia made a swift recovery from the global crisis and its own real estate crisis that shook the economy in 2009. In 2011, the economy grew by 7.5%. The ongoing turmoil in the eurozone is expected to affect Estonia’s small and open economy.

Country Report

Switzerland (Country report)

Switzerland’s economic recovery has been robust thus far but the coming quarters can prove more challenging amid weaker external demand. Thankfully, the country has ample fiscal space to battle any significant economic slowdown.

Country Report

Poland (Country report)

After growing strongly with 4.3% in 2011, the economy of Poland is expected to slow to a still respectable 2-3% in 2012. Considering the sovereign-debt-sensitive market is continuation of current fiscal consolidation important.

Country Report

Israel (Country report)

Israel’s modern, high-tech, open and service based economy is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2011 to 2% in 2012. Contagion from the Arab Spring hit Israel when massive street protests ensued in July 2011, and social unrest could flare up again.

Country Report

Bermuda (Country update)

On Bermuda, the (re)insurance and tourism sectors dominate, which means that a slow recovery in the US and Europe weighs on economic growth.

Country Report

Argentina (Country report)

In mid-April Argentina’s government grabbed international headlines when it partially nationalized YPF, Argentina’s largest energy company. Meanwhile, Argentina’s economic policy framework is resulting in increasing macroeconomic pressures.

Country Report

China (Country update)

Growth in China is slowing in line with a soft landing scenario (around 8.3% in 2012), but the need for structural reforms is insufficiently addressed. Inflation has fallen to around 3.5%.

Country Report

Vietnam (Country update)

Vietnam’s economy remains highly vulnerable and growth is running below trend at 5.9% in 2011. Inflation has fallen somewhat relative to 2011, but remains high and in double-digit territory.

Country Report

Ireland (Country report)

Even though the worst of the recession is over, the Irish economy is set for a very slow recovery this year and next. Recapitalization and restructuring of the banking sector is well under way. But further unforeseen losses cannot be excluded.

Country Report

France (Country report)

Robust growth of private consumption has contributed to the steady French recovery, but due to the intensification of the debt crisis and the announced austerity package growth will fall back significantly this year.

Country Report

Luxembourg (Country report)

Economic growth was very disappointing in 2011 thanks to the weakening of global activity and European debt crisis. Going forward, Luxembourg's growth performance is unlikely to return to the lofty levels witnessed earlier this decade.

Country Report

Portugal (Country report)

Portuguese economic activity fell sharply over the past year. We expect the economy to contract further this year as government austerity pushes down domestic demand and export growth will not be strong enough to compensate for this.

Country Report

Singapore (Country report)

The Singaporean economy is slowing against the backdrop of weaker global growth and heightened global uncertainty. Key risks are a sharp and protracted downturn in large advanced economies and extreme financial stress spreading from the eurozone.