RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Special

Is a US trade war imminent?

Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.

Special

US: Is there rising wage growth on the horizon?

We predict wage growth to peak at 3.0 to 3.3% in the next two years. While this is higher than current levels, it’s on the low end of the Fed’s preferred range. At the same time, our models show that we’re already getting close to the peak of the economic cycle.

Economic Report

De onvermoede voortgang van Trump (Dutch)

Ruim één jaar na de inauguratie van Donald Trump zijn de eerste successen geboekt: een ingrijpende belastingwet is getekend en de regeldruk voor het bedrijfsleven is verminderd. Handelsmaatregelen bleven achter bij de campagneretoriek, maar kunnen in 2018 alsnog van de grond komen.

Special

Uiteenvallen NAFTA biedt kansen voor Nederlandse exporteurs (Dutch)

Over de toekomst van NAFTA bestaat momenteel grote onzekerheid. Beëindiging van het huidige verdrag leidt tot economische verliezen voor de betrokken partijen. Voor Nederlandse exporteurs kan het echter ook kansen opleveren, omdat hun relatieve handelspositie verbetert.

Special

The economic impact of a (partial) NAFTA breakdown

The total economic costs of a NAFTA breakdown up till 2025 would range between 0.9% and 1.0% GDP for the US, 1.3% and 2.0% GDP for Canada, and 2.2% and 2.6% GDP for Mexico, depending on the severity of the breakdown.