RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Uruguay (Update country report)

Uruguay’s economy has continued to grow quickly, although growth has slowed somewhat recently. The deceleration has been welcome, as the economy was close to overheating. The labour market is still very tight.

Country Report

South Africa (Country report)

The large group of unemployed youth constitutes an increasing risk for mounting social and political tensions in South Africa. Subdued economic growth as a result of moderate external demand hinder the country in reducing unemployment.

Country Report

Hungary (Country update)

Hungary’s economic situation continues to deteriorate with alarming speed. While the ongoing eurozone crisis puts pressure on Hungary’s economy, the government continues to spook investors.

Country Report

Romania (Country report)

Romania’s economy was severely impacted by the global crisis and only started to recover last year, reporting a 2% growth rate. We expect growth to slow in light of the eurozone recession and deleveraging by eurozone banks.

Country Report

Dominican Republic (Country report)

Economic growth in the Dominican Republic fell from 7.8% in 2010 to 4.1% last year, as the government had to rein in fiscal stimulus under an IMF standby-agreement. No major policy changes are expected.

Country Report

India (Country report)

Economic growth in India is expected to fall below the ‘magic’ 7% in fiscal year 2011/12. Five state elections are planned for 2012, which will give more information on the popularity of the government.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

Being one of the most open countries in Asia, Malaysia is sensitive to swings in external demand. Demand for Malaysia’s electronics is expected to be weaker in 2012, but a rise of oil and gas prices would benefit Malaysia as a net energy exporter.

Country Report

Chile (Update country report)

Chile’s economy continued to grow vigorously in 2011, although growth slowed in the course of the year. After large scale protests and strikes, these illustrate that Chile’s social model continues to face challenges.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

The death of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, has increased political uncertainty within North Korea and led to uncertainty for South Korea. Due to monetary tightening and lower external demand, real GDP growth was 3.3% in 2011.

Country Report

Azerbaijan (Country report)

Azerbaijan is highly dependent on its energy sector and oil exports in particular, which supports the current account and public finances. Economic growth is forecasted at 4% in 2012.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan. The fallout from the Arab Spring protests has forced King Abdullah II to dismiss the government. Economic growth is estimated at a mere 2.6% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Country Report

Nigeria (Update country report

Persistent attacks by the Islamist Boko Haram sect, as well as large-scale strikes and protests following a sudden abolishment of fuel subsidies at the start of 2012, show that Nigeria is very prone to political and civil unrest.

Country Report

Bulgaria (Country report)

Bulgaria is largely praised for its sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies, but its external debt remains high and a slow and complicated bureaucracy, as well as widespread corruption continues to hamper the business environment.

Country Report

Bangladesh (Country report)

Bangladesh's economy continues to prove its resilience amid a worsening external environment. Yet, despite strong economic growth it remains one of the world's poorest countries.

Country Report

Tanzania (Country report)

Despite chronic power shortages and rampant inflation, Tanzania’s economy managed to grow at an estimated 6.4% in 2011.