Economic Report
The great Brexit gamble paid off
The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
665 Publications
Special
The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Special
The Great Brexit Gamble
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Special
We can’t rely on China to drive global economic growth again
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
Special
Very dangerous European cars part II
Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.
Economic Report
Spanish elections: take four!
Sunday’s elections in Spain are unlikely to break the deadlock in parliament. The economy will continue to grow relatively fast in the short term, but growth is slowing while unemployment is still high and public finances weak.
Special
German fiscal stimulus: Will politicians heed the call?
Trouble in the German economy has more structural groundings than just the trade war. The aging population will have a significant downward effect. We compute the impact of two investment packages for R&D, education and infrastructure.
Economic Report
India could miss the shift underway in global trade, unless...
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.
Economic Report
Brexit Update - Extension rebellion
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
Economic Report
De regio als spin in het web van innovatie en groei (Dutch)
Onze economie is veranderd. Kennis, de regio en duurzaamheid zijn veel centraler komen te staan bij het concurrentievermogen van bedrijven. Nationaal, macro-economisch innovatiebeleid volstaat daarom niet meer. Otto Raspe stelt dat nieuw innovatiebeleid veel nadrukkelijker gebiedsgericht moet zijn.
Economic Report
Storm in a tea cup or first step towards a transatlantic trade war?
In this report we assess the potential impact of US tariffs on European Union export goods worth USD 7.5bn. The use of a standard GTAP trade model enables us to analyse the economic impact across sectors and countries.
Economic Report
Portugal: Continuing down the road of fiscal consolidation
Portuguese elections (October 6) are likely to be won by Prime Minister Costa’s Socialists. Costa’s ability to maintain fiscal prudence as a policy cornerstone will depend on the economy maintaining its momentum.
Special
Trump: Impeachment without conviction
The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President.
Economic Report
India’s economic slump: Is there worse in store or light at the end of the tunnel?
India’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in six years. At this point it is uncertain whether the economic slump has bottomed out. We have pencilled in a rebound in growth to 6% for fiscal q2, but there are substantial downward risks to this outlook.