RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Economic Report

Latin America: FX outlook - Carry on, and on

Latin American currencies have outperformed USD this year with carry providing a notable boost. MXN was a notable outperformer. Performance will be good if volatility remains low. A surge in risk aversion could lead to rapid carry trade unwinds.

Economic Report

Latin America: the times, they are changing

Anti-establishment sentiment is growing in Latin America, just like elsewhere on the back of a growing and increasingly vocal middle class. Latin America continues to shift away from populism and policy is becoming more constructive.

Special

Argentina: open for business

A new government has embarked on a major and much-needed shift in economic policies. The economic recovery is in sight and business opportunities arise in sectors with high catch up potential.