RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Het groeiperspectief van de eurozone (Dutch)

Na jaren van crisis en stagnatie is het herstel van de economie van de eurozone in de meeste landen nog steeds zeer fragiel. In deze Special geven we een beeld van het groeiperspectief voor de eurozone.

Special

De zin en onzin van de ‘output gap’ (Dutch)

In beleidsdiscussies wordt veel gebruik gemaakt van de ‘output gap’. In dit rapport leggen we uit welke onzekerheden er zijn rondom de schatting hiervan en hoe dit kan leiden tot foutieve beleidsadviezen. Bij gebruik ervan is voorzichtigheid geboden.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Economic growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the medium term underpinned by strong domestic demand and economic diversification. However, the increase in current government spending challenges fiscal sustainability.

Country Report

Country Report Mauritius

Economic growth in Mauritius continues to be suppressed by subdued external demand from Europe. Meanwhile, flash floods in the beginning of 2013 and an increased wage bill have driven up government expenditure.

Country Report

Country Report Sri Lanka

On the economic front, Sri Lanka is performing relatively well. Growth is holding up strongly and the balance of payments is improving. The increasingly authoritarian style of the Rajapaksa government is, however, less positive news.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

The South Korean government is trying to raise growth both in the short- and long-term. Meanwhile, the external vulnerability of the country and of its banking sector in particular, has decreased. Relations with North Korea remain uncertain and difficult.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

While Turkey’s economic growth started to slow in the second quarter, the central bank faces pressure to reverse its major January interest rate hike ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. As expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first directly-elected president.

Country Report

Country Report India

The recent massive election win of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and expectations of business friendly reforms are boosting sentiment and growth. However, India will not change overnight.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina faces major socioeconomic challenges in the aftermath of devastating floods and months of violent protests. The upcoming general elections in October are unlikely to improve the situation, but increased IMF support should alleviate possible financial problems.

Country Report

Country Report Kenya

2013 was a crucial year for Kenya, as domestic political stability improved on the back of peaceful elections, which contributed to better economic prospects. Unfortunately, these improvements were offset by an increasing terrorist security threat.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, but growth is likely to weaken amid mutual EU and Russian sanctions. As prime minister Tusk heads for Brussels, a new cabinet may be nominated as soon as early September.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Six months ahead of its euro area accession, Lithuania’s economy performs strongly. While reciprocal EU and Russian sanctions are unlikely to derail growth this year, tensions with Russia may result in further boycotts of Lithuanian products.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua’s economy performed rather well in 2013 and the economic outlook remains favourable. However, its institutional framework has weakened further and the president can now be re-elected and be elected for more than two times.