RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: negatief: nieuw normaal? (Dutch)

Het beleid van de centrale bank wordt vaak als oorzaak van de lage rente gezien, maar deze is net zo goed een gevolg van structurele demografische en technologische factoren. De rentes in de eurozone zullen nog lang negatief blijven.

Economic Report

United States: Return of the US debt ceiling

After being suspended for about a year, the debt limit returned on March 2. However, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures that could delay a federal government default to September or October.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

Economic Quarterly Report

Eurozone: groei zet door dankzij binnenlandse dynamiek (Dutch)

De economische groei in de eurozone blijft dit en volgend jaar op peil in een tempo van rond de 2 procent. De binnenlandse dynamiek is krachtig, gedreven door een robuuster wordende arbeidsmarkt.