RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Eurozone: waar is de vraag gebleven? (Dutch)

We verwachten dat de economie in de eurozone in 2019 met 1,3 procent groeit en in 2020 met 1,5 procent. De groei zal worden gedreven door de binnenlandse bestedingen. De belangrijkste risico’s blijven de Brexit en een verdere escalatie van de handelsspanningen tussen de VS en de EU.

Economic Report

Italy is testing the limits

On 27 September the Italian government presented its budget target for 2019. The worsened outlook has shocked markets and kept them busy since. The government will expectedly temper part of its plans if necessary to calm markets. That said, the risk that it will do too little too late cannot be neglected.

Special

Is the Greek debt saga finally over?

A large cash buffer and new debt relief measures limit the risk the Greek government runs into payment difficulties in the short run. Yet due to its high debt Greece stays dependent upon the mercy of Eurozone partners and the markets for a long time.

Economic Quarterly Report

Een eurozonecrisis staat niet voor de deur (Dutch)

De economische groei in de eurozone zwakt dit jaar wat af, maar blijft relatief sterk. De handelsspanningen met de VS, politieke ontwikkelingen in Zuid-Europa en dure olie zijn belangrijke risico’s. De eurozone staat echter zeker niet op omvallen.

Economic Comment

Italy’s political crisis continues

The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.