RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

India: where is the negative impact of demonetization?

The Indian economy grew by 7% in Q4 of 2016, which is surprising given that India was struck by an unexpected demonetization operation. The explanation can be found in underrepresentation of the informal economy in statistics and overestimation of the role of the private corporate sector.

Economic Report

China: how realistic is the government’s growth target?

China’s 6.7% GDP growth was on government’s track in 2016, but lower growth is expected ahead as focus will rely more and more on risk prevention amid excessive credit levels, a housing market bubble, and capital outflows.

Economic Report

The (potential) impact of Trump on Asia Pacific

Trump’s policy regarding Asia presents a downside risk for APAC’s economy and security situation. If the US increase trade barriers, this is expected to have major implications for the region. Even more so if there would be protectionist retaliations.

Economic Report

Will China be the world's new growth catalyst?

China can move up to the center stage of the global economy, if it succeeds in fostering innovation, human capital and the quality of institutions. The economic gains could be as high as USD 6.5 trn of additional value added in 2025, which is equivalent to one-third of US GDP.