RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Japan: Rising cases and rising tensions

The Bank of Japan will probably take a break from stimulus, for now. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in Tokyo, as are tensions with China. Both represent downside risks to our outlook.

Economic Comment

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

COVID-19 Economisch Dashboard (Dutch)

Er zit vertraging tussen de gevolgen van de coronacrisis voor de economie en de publicatie van economische data. Daarom werpen we een blik op economische indicatoren die eerder beschikbaar komen. Data over files, internationale vluchten, en restaurantboekingen zijn tijdiger beschikbaar en kunnen ons eerder inzicht geven over de economische effecten van de coronacrisis.

Economic Comment

Japan: Even more stimulus, yet not enough

Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.

Economic Comment

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.

Column

Centrale banken als redders in de nood (Dutch)

Monetaire financiering komt vaker voor in de geschiedenis. Het is potentieel gevaarlijk, maar meestal leidt het niet tot hoge inflatie. Onder bijzondere omstandigheden, zoals oorlogen en nu de coronacrisis, is de inzet ervan goed te rechtvaardigen, ook voor de ECB.

Economic Comment

Japan: A deep recession

We expect Japan to fall in a deep recession this year with the economy shrinking by 5%. This is due to looming lockdowns in, amongst others, Tokyo and Osaka and because Japan’s exports will sink as global demand dries up.