RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again

The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.

Special

De economische impact van handelsoorlogen (Dutch)

Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.

Special Dutch version

Trumpgate

Progress on President Trump’s legislative agenda has been slow and an increasing amount of time and energy in the White House and on Capitol Hill is spent on ‘Trumpgate’. We consider three different political routes that could be taken in the US.