Special
EU leaders have agreed to ban all Russian seaborne oil imports. The ban, amid already high inflation, intense supply chain pressure and tightening financial conditions, will push the Eurozone into a recession.
Special
The current energy crisis has highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with our dependence on Russian gas. The EU aims to become fully independent from Russian energy, but replacing Russian gas fully is easier said than done.
Economic Comment Dutch version
Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.
Economic Quarterly Report
Mismatch tussen vraag en aanbod bepalen het economisch beeld; stijgende inflatie is daar een uitvloeisel van. Dat is een uitdaging voor centrale banken, maar renteverhogingen zijn ons inziens nog niet aan de orde. Want ook de risico’s op een groeivertraging zijn toegenomen.
Special
Tensions between the EU and China have increased considerably and some decoupling is likely. With a vulnerability heat map, we show that a sharp deterioration of EU-China relations would have negative implications for the entire EU, but mostly for Germany.
Economic Report
The reopening of euro area economies has spurred economic activity. Eurozone GDP grew with 2% q/q in 2021Q2. The recovery should be sustained in the coming quarters. The Delta variant is mainly a risk for the outlook of tourism dependent economies.
Economic Comment
Alle grote bedrijven moeten in de toekomst de EU-Taxonomie gebruiken. Een update over de laatste ontwikkelingen in de nieuwe groene taal.
Special
Government support and a drop in the labor force curtailed the increase in Eurozone unemployment. Going forward, specific industries may struggle to find adequately skilled staff, but we don’t foresee general labor shortages.
Economic Quarterly Report
Wat als de Europese overheden de beperkende maatregelen trager versoepelen dan verwacht? In dit scenario blijft het economische herstel in 2021 en 2022 grotendeels uit. Het Nederlandse bbp is een jaar later op pre-coronaniveau.
Special
After a harsh start of the year, the Eurozone economic outlook should start to improve from next quarter. With help of the EU recovery fund, the economy will hit its pre-pandemic level mid-2022. Yet only if the vaccination campaign gains ample speed.
Economic Comment
The Eurozone economy contracted with 0.7% in the final quarter of last year and with 6.8% in 2020 as a whole. Going forward, the apparent resilience of the economy bodes some comfort, but will not prevent another contraction in the current quarter.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We forecast the Eurozone economy to contract by 7.4% in 2020 and to grow with 3.9% in 2021. The economy will need more time to fully recover. Considerable uncertainty remains about the underlying damage done to companies in the COVID-19 crisis.
Economic Report
The Eurozone economy grew by 12.7% q/q in Q3. Despite the strong economic rebound, economic activity is still substantially lower than pre-crisis. Going forward, the second wave and new round of lockdowns across the Eurozone undermine the recovery.
