RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Belgium: Good things come to those who wait

The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.

Economic Update

Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!

GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.

Economic Update

Spain: Basta recesión!

Spanish GDP rose in 13Q3, after nine quarterly contractions in a row. Although positive, we do not expect a quick recovery on the labour market. Based on the Budget 2014, the fiscal effort will be slightly less than in preceding years.

Economic Update

Germany: Steady as she goes

Once again, the German economy posted a positive growth figure in the third quarter. The increase has been entirely domestic-driven. We expect domestic demand to remain strong given the solid labour market and the positive investment outlook.

Economic Update

France: Nombres rouges

The French economy slightly contracted in 13Q3, but this was largely due to a bounce back from the strong 13Q2 figure. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit very gradually. Therefore, we do not envisage a robust improvement in the labour market.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

Portugal has made considerable progress regarding the implementation of structural reforms and safeguarding financial stability. However, the high short-term socioeconomic costs have increased political instability, which might weigh on support for further reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The short term pain of the macroeconomic rebalancing process is clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms. Without a more vigorous cleanup of the banking sector, it will remain a large drag on the recovery going forward.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014 - Recovery on a shaky footing

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.