RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Ecuador

Ecuador’s return to the international capital markets improved its liquidity. But, the external position remains weak. The interventionist and nationalist tendencies of the Correa government continue.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

Mexico’s economic growth starts to pick up and its economic outlook is also improving, as all intended structural reforms are approved. The most important one, energy, is likely to contribute the most.

Country Report

Country Report Honduras

Honduras is a country with a weak institutional structure and poor public finances. While the government seems to have reduced its deficit, fiscal challenges remain sizeable.

Country Report

Country Report Panama

Supported by infrastructure projects economic growth in Panama is strong. Whether these projects will boost growth structurally, to an extent that it will outweigh a loss of short-term infrastructural investment-driven growth, remains to be seen.

Country Report

Country Report Costa Rica

Intel has announced that it will relocate its production plant to Asia, severely denting Costa Rica’s GDP. Furthermore, with the government failing to address structural fiscal problems, Moody’s has downgraded the sovereign to below investment grade.

Country Report

Country Report Peru

Economic growth has slowed down strongly in the first half of this year, but is likely to pick-up in the second half of 2014 and afterwards. Meanwhile, the well-regarded Finance Minister Luis Miguel Castilla was replaced in September 2014.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua’s economy performed rather well in 2013 and the economic outlook remains favourable. However, its institutional framework has weakened further and the president can now be re-elected and be elected for more than two times.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

Economic growth in Brazil is likely to fall below 1% in 2014, as both investment and consumption have been weakening. In the second quarter, the economy officially entered a recession. Meanwhile, the October 2014 presidential elections have become very competitive after Marina Silva’s entry to the race.

Country Report

Country Report Sint Maarten

St. Maarten has experienced moderate economic growth in 2013. One of St. Maarten’s challenges remains building up an institutional framework, as it currently lacks the human and financial resources to develop a good functioning administration.

Country Report

Country Report Curaçao

Curaçao had a slightly disappointing economic performance in 2013. However, both Curaçao’s external position and public finances improved. Nevertheless, these remain important weaknesses.

Economic Comment

Argentina defaults again

This week, Argentina was unable to reach an agreement with the holdout creditors from the 2001 default. In effect, this means that the sovereign has now defaulted on its debt obligations for the second time this century.

Country Report

Country Report Colombia

Colombia is moving closer to achieving peace with the central FARC-command, after president Santos won the second round of the presidential elections. Meanwhile, the economy is booming, presenting both challenges and opportunities.