Hoe waarschijnlijk is het dat de Amerikaanse president Trump de invoertarieven op Europese auto’s zal verhogen en wat zal daarvan de economische impact zijn? Maartje Wijffelaars en Erik-Jan van Harn daarover in deze video.
Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.
Driven by animosity vis-à-vis German cars and a sense of non-reciprocity by the EU on lower car tariffs, US President Trump is expected in the next few weeks to decide on whether the US will impose trade tariffs on cars. We assess the possible impact.
De spanningen lopen verder op nu Trump China op de korrel neemt. De EU heeft juist een ontheffing gekregen op hogere tarieven. De ontheffing is echter tijdelijk. Hoe gaat het nu verder? En welke sectoren lopen het meeste risico als spanningen escaleren?
In anticipation of the new tensions in the trade war saga, we assess which economic segments are most vulnerable in China, Europe and the US. We subsequently look at bilateral trade ties, food & agri flows and fiscal deficits related to higher defence spending.
Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.
Simulations with a macro-econometric model show that a reduction in the US corporate tax rate will boost GDP growth in the short run, but the debt ratio in the long run. The cut will also lead to higher long-term interest rates and a stronger US dollar.
So far, Trump has failed to implement much of his protectionist trade agenda. We discuss five reasons why we believe Trump will not implement a full-fletched package of protectionist measures. If Trump does resort to protectionism, US GDP could face losses up to -3.1 percentage points in 2018.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect moderate global economic growth of around 3 per cent in 2017 and 2018. American protectionism will expectedly have a negative effect on world trade growth. Political developments in the US and Europe constitute the biggest source of uncertainty.
Special Dutch version
As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.