RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Special Dutch version

Latin America: locked up in the middle-income trap?

Latin American countries not appear to be breaking out of the middle-income trap. Productivity growth has been disappointingly low in recent decades. There are several big structural issues, such as severe human capital and infrastructure constraints.

Country Report

Chile: economic reality holds back reforms

Despite low copper prices, growth picks up modestly on the back of government stimulus and external rebalancing, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Economic reality and Bachelet’s low popular approval rates hold back reform ambitions.

Country Report

Brazil: headwinds intensify

Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.