RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Brazil: Recovery continues to disappoint

Growth in Brazil disappointed once again in 1Q2013. Investment was very strong, but we expect it to become less vigorous in the rest of the year. Meanwhile, private consumption slowed down strongly. We now expect growth of only 2¼% this year.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht juni 2013 (Dutch)

Wereldwijd hebben beleidsmakers de monetaire sluizen de afgelopen maanden verder opengedraaid. Ook qua begrotingsbeleid lijkt er een iets andere wind te gaan waaien.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua has a weak political and economic structure, as well as a low standard of living. Economic growth has been quite strong in recent years. Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on support Venezuela is a big vulnerability.

Country Report

Country Report Suriname

The Surinam economy has grown relatively rapidly recently. The country has a current account surplus and government debt is low at 20% of GDP. Shortcomings are weak external relations, weak institutions and a narrow economic base.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

Important sectors of the Mexican economy are characterized by a low level of competition. Positive in this respect is that new President Peña Nieto intends to reform these markets with the help of the opposition.

Country Report

Country Report Peru

Investment in large mining projects is likely to continue in Peru, although an escalation in the conflict with local communities could hurt the investment climate. A U-turn in his energy policies has dented the popularity of President Humala.

Country Report

Country Report Colombia

Peace talks between the FARC and the government are likely to be protracted, but could boost the reputation of Colombia and the energy sector. Meanwhile, an important tax reform could reduce the high income inequality and labour informality.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

Argentina’s economy is likely to recover modestly in 2013, but the peso has fallen rapidly on the informal market, as a devaluation is widely expected. Meanwhile, there is the risk that Argentina will enter a technical default.

Country Report

Country Report Aruba

The shutdown of Aruba’s oil refinery has put a major drag on economic growth. The economy contracted by -1.2% in 2012, while the growth figure for 2011 was revised downwards. Due to the GDP contraction, public finance ratio’s worsened considerably.