RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Japan: Abe’s election ‘gamble’ turned into victory

Abe and his LDP-Komeito coalition were victorious at yesterday’s lower house elections. The disappointing election result for the opposition side is not surprising when one takes into account the short amount of time for a structured election campaign.

Economic Report

Latin America: The only way is up

Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.

Economic Report

Japanese snap elections: logic or gamble?

Japanese Premier Abe called for snap lower house elections to be held on October 22. We expect Abe’s coalition to win the election by majority, but major changes on the opposition side can turn the snap election from initial logic to a gamble.

Economic Report

North Korea’s pressure point: the economy

China’s economic lifeline is key for North Korea’s economy. Recent sanctions are expected to put more pressure on the regime in Pyongyang, but China also has its strategic interests related to North Korea.

Economic Report

India: where is the negative impact of demonetization?

The Indian economy grew by 7% in Q4 of 2016, which is surprising given that India was struck by an unexpected demonetization operation. The explanation can be found in underrepresentation of the informal economy in statistics and overestimation of the role of the private corporate sector.

Economic Report

China: how realistic is the government’s growth target?

China’s 6.7% GDP growth was on government’s track in 2016, but lower growth is expected ahead as focus will rely more and more on risk prevention amid excessive credit levels, a housing market bubble, and capital outflows.

Economic Report

Will China be the world's new growth catalyst?

China can move up to the center stage of the global economy, if it succeeds in fostering innovation, human capital and the quality of institutions. The economic gains could be as high as USD 6.5 trn of additional value added in 2025, which is equivalent to one-third of US GDP.