Country Report
Hungary (Country update)
Hungary’s economic situation continues to deteriorate with alarming speed. While the ongoing eurozone crisis puts pressure on Hungary’s economy, the government continues to spook investors.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
16 Publications
Country Report
Romania (Country report)
Romania’s economy was severely impacted by the global crisis and only started to recover last year, reporting a 2% growth rate. We expect growth to slow in light of the eurozone recession and deleveraging by eurozone banks.
Country Report
Dominican Republic (Country report)
Economic growth in the Dominican Republic fell from 7.8% in 2010 to 4.1% last year, as the government had to rein in fiscal stimulus under an IMF standby-agreement. No major policy changes are expected.
Economic Comment
Eurozone terug in het rood (Macro Comment) (Dutch)
Het Bruto Binnenlands Product (BBP) van de eurozone kromp in 11K4 met 0,3% k-o-k. Gezien het zwakke sentiment en de daling van de industriële productie, komt de BBP-krimp niet als een verrassing.
Country Report
India (Country report)
Economic growth in India is expected to fall below the ‘magic’ 7% in fiscal year 2011/12. Five state elections are planned for 2012, which will give more information on the popularity of the government.
Country Report
Malaysia (Country report)
Being one of the most open countries in Asia, Malaysia is sensitive to swings in external demand. Demand for Malaysia’s electronics is expected to be weaker in 2012, but a rise of oil and gas prices would benefit Malaysia as a net energy exporter.
Economic Comment
The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1
The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.
Column
De ECB heeft haar bijdrage geleverd (column) (Dutch)
In de afgelopen weken is het sentiment op de financiële markten aanmerkelijk verbeterd. Dat is vooral te danken aan de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB), die in december een nieuwe langetermijnfinancieringsfaciliteit voor het bankwezen introduceerde.
Economic Comment
Maastricht Treaty turned 20, hooray?
The 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty went largely unnoticed due to the euro crisis. Now the officials have come up with stricter fiscal rules to avoid a repeat of this crisis. Only time will tell whether the taken steps are sufficient.
Economic Update
Economic Update Belgium
In the second half of 2011 the Belgian economy experienced a mild recession. Also this year growth of domestic demand will be very weak, partly due to the fiscal consolidation measures.
Economic Update
Economic Update Germany
Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.
Economic Update
Economic Update Italy
The Italian economy fell back into recession in11Q3. The pace of decline probably accelerated in the fourth quarter and we expect a further contraction in 12Q1. The announced austerity measures will hold back growth in 2012 as a whole.
Economic Update
Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)
In de tweede helft van 2011 was de Belgische economie in een lichte recessie. Mede door de forse bezuinigingsopgave zal de groei van de binnenlandse bestedingen naar verwachting ook in 2012 zeer zwak zijn.
Economic Update
Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)
Velen concludeerden dat de Duitse jaar-op-jaar groei (3% in 2011) een krimp in 11K4 impliceerde. Naar onze mening is deze redenering te direct. Wel is de kans op een krimp in 11K4 aanzienlijk toegenomen.
Economic Update
Conjunctuurbeeld Italië (Dutch)
De Italiaanse economie viel in 11K3 terug in recessie. In het vierde kwartaal is die krimp waarschijnlijk versneld en ook voor 12K1 verwachten wij een verdere economische teruggang.