Country Report
Economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the coming years, with the weak banking sector unable to support the recovery. Some major reforms achieved over the past years still have to prove their effectiveness, while reform progress will slow.
Country Report
The short-term economic outlook is strong. But, continued reform progress and fiscal consolidation are necessary to improve debt sustainability and the weak external position. The outlook for both is rather weak due to the current political instability.
Country Report
In case of a Brexit, a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty is likely, hurting the British financial sector and business investments. Other risks stem from the high private debt and the banking sector.
Economic Report Dutch version
European growth is expected to remain subdued in the coming years, due to fading tailwind gains and structural weakness. Negative risk to the outlook have risen; the refugee crisis and a Brexit being the most prominent ones.
Country Report
Turkey’s economy expanded by 4% last year, but Russian sanctions and weaker tourist arrivals will negatively affect growth this year. In spite of the AKP’s regained parliamentary majority, Turkey’s political situation remains volatile which could once more weigh on essential foreign capital inflows.
Country Report
The Swiss export sector was affected by a sharp appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) following the Swiss central bank’s (SNB) decision to scrap the currency ceiling early 2015. However, economic growth held up and we expect a rebound of economic growth and exports this year.
Country Report
The centre-right government has successfully implemented several policy measures to improve Belgian price competitiveness. High public debt, inflation and security issues are the most prominent downward risks for a stable economic recovery.
Economic Report Dutch version
The success of anti-establishmentcandidate statistically explained by stagnant median wages and declining manufacturing employment. When these trends persist, Trump and his successors are here to stay.
Economic Comment
Italian banking shares dropped 30% in the first months of 2016. Policy makers have recently taken measures to revive the banking sector, but also to improve governability of the country. Measures will be partly effective in reviving the economy.
Country Report
Ireland posted very strong growth of 7.8% last year which supports deleveraging and house prices but asset quality of banks remains poor and could hurt banks and the government in the future. As possibly worst affected, Ireland is closely following the Brexit debate.
Country Report
The German economy performs well on the back of a competitive export sector and is rebalancing towards domestic demand, driven by a strong labour market. The recent surge in immigration poses a significant challenge for the German economy.
Special Dutch version
In this Special, we present our newly developed indicator for monitoring economic growth in China: the China Activity Indicator (CAI). In addition to five traditional indicators (such as electricity output), this also includes an indicator of private consumption. According to the CAI, growth in China in 2015 is closer to 5% than 7%.
Economic Comment
De rust lijkt wedergekeerd op de financiële markten maar onduidelijk is waarom. Met het komende Brexit-referendum, de Griekse schuldonderhandelingen en mogelijk vervolg van de vluchtelingencrisis kan de onrust op financiële markten zo weer terug zijn.
Economic Comment
Wij zien een negatieve samenhang tussen kredietverlening en de rol van balansverkorting de in aanpassing aan strengere kapitaaleisen. Banken in de eurozone maakten relatief sterk gebruik van balansverkorting en de-risking van de balans.
