RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Will Liikanen change the European bank sector

The Liikanen Group recommends that banks engaged in significant high-risk trading activities should be required to integrate these into a separate legal and economic entity within the banking group. How does this affect European banks and customers?

Special

Outlook 2013: Lower growth is the new reality

In 2013 the Dutch economy will show a very low growth rate of just 0.25%. Globally, the emerging markets will drive economic growth mostly. We project that, mainly as a result of the euro crisis, the global economy will grow by only 3.75% in 2013.

Economic Comment

Economic visibility must improve quickly

Policy uncertainty remains high and this will have negative repercussions for growth. Thus far, financial markets have remained optimistic, but policymakers should not expect this to continue for far longer if policy visibility does not improve.

Economic Comment

How are exposures to periphery evolving?

Domestic residents of the euro periphery countries have increased their exposure to their respective governments as foreigners headed for the exit. This is an unwelcome development since it further reinforces the link between sovereigns and banks.

Special

Political risks in the eurozone (Special)

The eurozone's south is implementing austerity measures while the north is buying them the time to do so. Economic issues are usually extensively discussed. But what are the political risks that might render this strategy unfeasible?

Economic Report

Bail-in: an alternative to bail-out of banks?

According to a European proposal by the European Commission, bail-in is one of the instruments every EU member state should have at its disposal in order to deal effectively with banking crises. This Special Report discusses bail-in in more detail.

Country Report

Cyprus (Country update)

The Cypriot economy is deteriorating at an alarming speed. As the country's large financial sector is heavily exposed to Greek debt, its banks have been struggling to remain solvent.

Country Report

Lithuania (Country report)

Lithuania's recovery will slow in 2012, as domestic demand is still recovering and eurozone demand will be slow, reducing the growth of Lithuania's export sector.

Economic Report

Coping with life after debt (part 1)

In the first part of this series, we will show that debt, which has risen sharply in most advanced countries, is not necessarily a bad thing if it is at sustainable levels.

Economic Report

Coping with life after debt (part 2)

In part 2, we look at the post-crisis balance sheet adjustment process and conclude that (i) it will take many years to complete and (ii) the transitional phase will be economically painful.

Economic Comment

Central banks to the rescue (Macro Comment)

Central banks from around the globe have recently become more active in supporting growth. These actions are very welcome and may offer some hope for battered Western economies.

Special

Sovereign credit ratings

In this paper we will assess the ratings given by Moody's, S&P and Fitch.

Economic Quarterly Report

Focus: The grass is greener to the East

As a result of its open character, the Dutch economy fluctuates along with the international economic cycle. The Netherlands is now again in recession, while GDP in Germany continues to grow. Is the grass greener in the East?

Economic Report

Why is the euro crisis not ending? (part 1)

In the first part of this series, we will show that fiscal indiscipline is not at the root of this crisis. This is why the current policy prescription (fiscal austerity) has not been the silver bullet most hoped for.

Economic Report

Why is the euro crisis not ending? (part 2)

In part 2, we propose a number of steps the European policymakers can take in order to end the crisis. All it takes is a little bit of imagination and a lot of willingness.