RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go'

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Special

Inflation: Ambient or transient?

Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Special

Brexit Outlook: Down to the wire

The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.