RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update France

After the pickup in 12K3, several indicators point to a deterioration of economic activity in 12K4. For 2013 domestic demand is expected to remain weak amid large tax hikes, which will be imposed on both households and businesses.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In the third quarter, the Italian recession was more moderate than in the first half of the year. Although business sentiment improved in the past months, the recession is set to continue.

Special

Outlook 2013: Emerging Europe

The start of 2012 saw many Emerging European economies fall back into recession. Although the outlook for 2013 is somewhat less bleak, there is little reason for optimism. The region's proximity to the eurozone renders it vulnerable.

Special

Outlook 2013: Eurozone

While desperately in need of growth, eurozone's GDP is unlikely to pick up in the second half of this year. Although market sentiment regarding the European debt crisis seems to be on a cautious positive trend, the outlook for 2013 is bleak.

Special

Outlook 2013: Lower growth is the new reality

In 2013 the Dutch economy will show a very low growth rate of just 0.25%. Globally, the emerging markets will drive economic growth mostly. We project that, mainly as a result of the euro crisis, the global economy will grow by only 3.75% in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

The contraction of the Spanish GDP volume in 12Q3 was much smaller than expected. But this will prove to be a temporary effect, since consumers have frontloaded their spending in August to avoid paying higher VAT rates in September.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The leading indicators are all weakening, pointing towards softer growth in 12Q4. Hard data are still more resilient, thanks to strong exports. Housing prices continued to rise in 12H1. Consumer confidence is improving amid a worsening labour market.

Special

Political risks in the eurozone (Special)

The eurozone's south is implementing austerity measures while the north is buying them the time to do so. Economic issues are usually extensively discussed. But what are the political risks that might render this strategy unfeasible?

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In 12Q2, the Italian economy recorded its fourth quarterly decline. The economy will remain in recession in the second half of the year, but we expect the pace of contraction to moderate.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

French GDP stagnated in 12Q2 for the third quarter in a row. The recently presented 2013 budget shows that the budget deficit will be brought down predominantly by tax hikes. This does not bode well for domestic demand next year.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK GDP was revised further upwards in 12Q2. A number of indicators are pointing to a stronger recovery. That said, it makes sense to wait for the autumn data to draw a more definitive judgement on the underlying strength of the economy.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

Several indicators pointed to a mild GDP contraction in 12Q2, but the actual shrinkage was larger than expected. The weak investment climate and low sentiment levels of both consumers and producers do not bode well for a recovery in the short term.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Austerity measures are clearly having an adverse effect on economic activity. After a relatively modest pace of contraction in the first half of the year, we expect the pace of decline in economic activity to pick up in the second half.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

With a 0.7% quarterly contraction of GDP in 12Q2, the current Italian recession is now a year old. As in the preceding quarters, the economic decline is mainly the result of falling domestic demand.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

We expect a mild contraction of French GDP in 12Q2. This would be the first contraction since early 2009.