Economic Comment
Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment)
A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
11 Publications
Economic Comment
Irish economy still struggling to recover
After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.
Economic Comment
UK Budget: another missed opportunity
The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.
Economic Comment
India’s budget wins little applause
The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.
Economic Comment
Turkey: keeping heads cool helps
While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.
Economic Update
Economic Update France
The sound performance in recent quarters reflects the stability of the French economy. In the eurozone, France functions as a bastion of moderate economic growth. That said, harsh austerity measures will weigh on domestic demand in the coming years.
Economic Quarterly Report
Global Economic Outlook: Cautious optimism?
The global economy is performing better than most feared. But there are still many headwinds that can choke the recovery. The good news is that the downside risks may be mitigated by adequate fiscal and monetary policy measures.
Economic Update
Economic Update Emerging Markets
The emerging markets are almost all losing their growth momentum. Even China, which has been the light at the end of the tunnel for a couple of years, is now reducing its growth target to below 8%.
Economic Update
Economic Update Spain
The Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2011. We expect a further contraction in the first quarter of the current year. Government spending cuts and tax hikes will have a negative impact on domestic demand this year.
Economic Update
Economic Update United Kingdom
The UK GDP contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 11Q4. On a positive note, household spending finally grew after 4 quarters of contraction. Going forward, falling inflation may result in stronger consumer spending.
Economic Comment
Pace of austerity and fiscal fundamentals
The fear of a rating downgrade or losing market access has caused many advanced countries to embark on a very aggressive fiscal consolidation plan. This can potentially be harmful for output and employment growth.