RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

India: The two faces of FY22 budget

We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Economic Update

Japan: Worse before better

A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.

Economic Report

Why India is wise not to join RCEP

On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.

Economic Update

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.

Economic Comment

Japan: Crawling out of a recession

The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.

Economic Update

China: Dealing with defaults

Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.

Special

China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds

China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.

Special

Economic developments in India: A mixed bag of ups and downs

Economic developments in India are mixed. On the upside, there is the prospect of an effective vaccine, fresh government stimulus and better economic performance than anticipated. On the downside, there is a risk of a second wave and the economy continues to struggle with high inflation.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic and external woes continue

Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.