De kans dat de wereldeconomie harder gaat groeien dan nu het geval is lijkt gering, aangezien vele grote economieën op hun economisch potentieel zitten. Deze is aangetast door jaren van bovenmatige liquiditeit.
Economic activity in Latin America has been slowing down, but there still are pockets of opportunity. One example is the F&A sector in Brazil, which has performed much better than the overall economy.
The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.
Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.
Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.
Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.