RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

The contraction of the Spanish GDP volume in 12Q3 was much smaller than expected. But this will prove to be a temporary effect, since consumers have frontloaded their spending in August to avoid paying higher VAT rates in September.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The leading indicators are all weakening, pointing towards softer growth in 12Q4. Hard data are still more resilient, thanks to strong exports. Housing prices continued to rise in 12H1. Consumer confidence is improving amid a worsening labour market.

Country Report

Zambia (Country Report)

Zambia has continued to grow at a healthy pace of over 5% a year since 2000, but the country remains highly dependent international commodity price movements. The political climate is expected to remain stable following last year's elections.

Column

Zuid-Europa als rolmodel voor Frankrijk (Dutch)

Ik kom steeds vaker mensen tegen die het helemaal hebben gehad met Zuid-Europa. Naar mijn beleving gebeurt er daar echter enorm veel en ik ben er stellig van overtuigd dat de betreffende landen veel sterker uit deze crisis gaan komen.

Economic Comment

Economic visibility must improve quickly

Policy uncertainty remains high and this will have negative repercussions for growth. Thus far, financial markets have remained optimistic, but policymakers should not expect this to continue for far longer if policy visibility does not improve.

Economic Comment

How are exposures to periphery evolving?

Domestic residents of the euro periphery countries have increased their exposure to their respective governments as foreigners headed for the exit. This is an unwelcome development since it further reinforces the link between sovereigns and banks.

Special

Cooperatives and Rural Financial Development

In concordance with the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), this publication deals with the importance of poverty reduction through agricultural development and the indispensability of access to financial services for rural populations in emerging and developing countries.

Country Report

Peru (Country Update)

Peru's macroeconomic policies have remained prudent and Peru's economy is likely to grow by 5.5%-6% a year in 2012 and 2013, but social tensions surrounding mining activity remain high.

Economic Report

Op weg naar duurzame groei (Dutch)

Naarmate de welvaart stijgt, worden factoren belangrijker die niet zijn meegenomen in het BBP maar wel bijdragen aan het welzijn van mensen. Bij deze constatering past de overstap naar een duurzamer groeimodel. Dit is niet gemakkelijk te realiseren.

Country Report

Turkey (Country Update)

Turkey's economy appears to be headed for a soft-landing, after nearly overheating in 2011. While domestic demand growth came to a halt, exports took over as the main driver of growth. For 2012, we expect growth to come in at roughly 3%.

Country Report

Egypt (Country Update)

Egypt's economy is slowly recovering from the turmoil surrounding the Arab spring and subsequent events. With an elected government in place, some of the uncertainty of the past years has been removed.

Country Report

Malta (Country Report)

Despite the fact that Malta fell back into recession this year, its economy and banking sector have been relatively resilient over the past years. Malta is expected to record modest growth for 2013.

Country Report

Algeria (Country Report)

Growth slowed in Algeria on account of reduced energy production and weaker demand from Europe. Still, due to an expected increase in oil production and further economic diversification, we expect growth rates to average 5% in the coming years.

Special

Oostzee-lessen voor Griekenland (Dutch)

Om Griekenland binnen de eurozone te behouden, is een aanpassingsproces onvermijdelijk. Wij onderzoeken de haalbaarheid hiervan aan de hand van ervaringen uit Oost-Duitsland en Letland. Voor een succesvolle aanpassing is Europese steun onontbeerlijk.

Economic Comment

China's growth rate slows further

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.