RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning

The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.

Special

US-China trade war: no turning back

The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.