Special Dutch version
The elections for European Parliament in May will result in a significant increase in support Eurosceptic parties. This will make the new European Parliament less supportive towards further European integration.
Economic Comment
On 14 February another British Parliament vote on Brexit passed by without any change of course. PM May might take Brexit to the wire in order to prevent a large rupture of the Conservative Party and maintain pressure on various decision makers. 27 February looks like the next milestone.
Economic Report
President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.
Economic Report
Trump received the report on the investigation into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. The conclusions have not been made public. Trump now has 90 days to decide – depending on the conclusion of the report – whether or not to impose tariff.
Economic Report Dutch version
Spain will hold early elections on 28 April. The short-term economic impact will be limited, but public finances will be worse off in 2019. The longer-term impact is difficult to assess based on current polls, but it could well be positive.
Column
Het Verenigd Koninkrijk is het geboorteland van twee van de grootste economen aller tijden: Adam Smith en John Maynard Keynes. Het vaderland van economische theorie gedraagt zich nu alles behalve rationeel. Brexitwaanzin!
Special Dutch version
For the first time the quality of management practices in the Dutch manufacturing sector has been measured in an internationally comparable way. Dutch management is ranked sixth worldwide, behind the United States, Sweden and Germany.
Special
The ECB could use Central Bank Securities to mop up liquidity. The use of this instrument may bring the additional advantage of the creation of a EMU-wide ‘safe asset’. This may bring advantages for the stability of the Eurozone.
Column Dutch version
Assessing US tax cuts, Italian public spending, and Fed or ECB policy all require a distinction between the 'cyclical' and 'structural'. But even when you who know the difference, it is easy to make a policy mistake.
Special
EMU is vulnerable and must be strengthened. Much is possible within the current legal framework. Banking Union (incl. EDIS) must be completed and it is essential to create a pan-EMU safe asset. Moreover, the ECB needs more effective instruments.
Special
In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.
Infographic
Infographic on Rabobank’s integral model-based forecasting approach accompanying the publication 'Nowcasting the Indian economy'.
Economic Comment
The British Parliament rejected the EU-UK Brexit deal on 14 January in a historic defeat for the government. The vote was expected to be a unique opportunity to change the Brexit course, but instead it left us in the same uncertainty.
