RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Peru: positive economic outlook

Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.

Country Report

United Arab Emirates: weathering low oil prices on the back of large buffers

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, low oil prices will continue to negatively affect economic and fiscal metrics. Despite the expected twin deficit in 2016 and 2017, we won’t expect any problems in meeting financing requirements due to UAE’s considerable sovereign wealth fund.

Country Report

Jordan’s economy remains in jeopardy

Jordan’s social and economic dynamics are severely affected by the Syrian crisis, while the government is making progress in consolidating the budget and reducing reliance on a limited number of energy sources.

Country Report

Croatia: successful reforms much needed but unlikely

Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.

Country Report

Turkey: ongoing political instabiliy

Turkey’s economy expanded by 4% last year, but Russian sanctions and weaker tourist arrivals will negatively affect growth this year. In spite of the AKP’s regained parliamentary majority, Turkey’s political situation remains volatile which could once more weigh on essential foreign capital inflows.

Country Report

Switzerland: quick economic rebound after massive appreciation 2015

The Swiss export sector was affected by a sharp appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) following the Swiss central bank’s (SNB) decision to scrap the currency ceiling early 2015. However, economic growth held up and we expect a rebound of economic growth and exports this year.

Country Report

Belgium: recovery at a snail's pace

The centre-right government has successfully implemented several policy measures to improve Belgian price competitiveness. High public debt, inflation and security issues are the most prominent downward risks for a stable economic recovery.

Country Report

Ireland: The Celtic Tiger is back

Ireland posted very strong growth of 7.8% last year which supports deleveraging and house prices but asset quality of banks remains poor and could hurt banks and the government in the future. As possibly worst affected, Ireland is closely following the Brexit debate.

Country Report

Germany: stable economic growth with challenges ahead

The German economy performs well on the back of a competitive export sector and is rebalancing towards domestic demand, driven by a strong labour market. The recent surge in immigration poses a significant challenge for the German economy.

Country Report

Philippines: strong economic growth amidst upcoming elections

The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.