RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

India (Country report)

India is showing very robust economic growth, after a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 9.1% yoy in 2010 and grow by 9.0% yoy in 2011. The largest country risks are found in the political and social situation.

Country Report

China (Country update)

China’s economy continues to perform strongly in spite of numerous rounds of monetary tightening, with year-on-year (yoy) real GDP growth remaining steady at 9.8% and 9.7% in the last two quarters. Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 5% yoy in each of the past three months.

Country Report

Vietnam (Country report)

Vietnam’s pro-growth policies will result in economic growth of around 6% year on year (yoy) in 2011, but at the expense of macro-economic stability. External imbalances are very high, as the current account posts large deficits and the country’s liquidity position is in a dismal state.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Japan is an economy running high-speed into uncharted territory. It has boosted growth potential to the maximum relative to its ageing population, boasting among the highest rates of labour force participation and effective retirement age among the industrialises world.

Country Report

New Zealand (Country Report)

New Zealand prior to the crisis seems to have developed a social convention where the government does the saving, leaving spending to households and firms (making New Zealand the exact opposite of Japan in this regard).

Country Report

Indonesia (Country Update)

After growing 4.5% in 2009, the economy is back to its pre-crisis growth level of around 6%. Downside risks to growth are a lower than expected global growth, a reversal of foreign capital flows, and/or a bursting asset bubble.

Country Report

Fiji (Country report)

The military coup in 2006 marked a continuation of Fiji’s tumultuous political history. Coup leader Bainimarama has remained in charge since, at the cost of democracy. The coup and subsequent repression has isolated Fiji internationally

Country Report

Taiwan (Country report)

The island of Taiwan has a dynamic, capitalist economy which has sharply rebounded from the effects of the global financial crisis. Economic activity will expand by over 9% yoy in 2010, a large improvement from the 1.9% contraction in 2009.

Country Report

Maldives (Country report)

A structural country risk the Maldives are facing is climate change. If the sea level rises only by a couple of meters, the majority of the Maldives will be submerged. The political situation is very unstable, as the opposition and the ruling party are frequently at loggerheads hindering any progress on reforms.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

The global recession in 2009 hit Malaysia via the trade channel. The highly export dependent economy experienced a steep decline in external demand for its export products last year.

Country Report

Sri Lanka (Country report)

The end of the civil war has boosted long-term economic prospects for Sri Lanka. The economy is expected to grow over 6% in 2010. However, the humanitarian situation remains poor since the government has failed to address the grievances of the Tamil minority.